PUMPProPetro Holding Corp.

PUMP — dossier, 2026-09-23

Slot names-insurance-2, third member, taken as a Tier 0 promotion (priority 2, queue.json, for the 8-K filed 2026-09-21) in place of LNC. Model-drafted unattended by the cloud research routine. Nothing here is human-verified. Every figure carries the document it was read from; anything from background knowledge is marked [background]. Quotes were located by exact substring search in a text extraction of the filing and copied out — never re-typed.

This name has no cluster pass. cluster-energy-materials-industrial is still pending in schedule.yaml, so S0, S4, S6 and S7 are ⬜ and were not improvised — the same position AX was in on 2026-09-22. There is no Stage 0 lens, no industry map and no scuttlebutt on ProPetro anywhere in this repo.

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1. Why it was promoted, and what the promotion actually caught

The Tier 0 sweep promoted PUMP on an 8-K filed 2026-09-21. That filing is an Item 5.02:

"Celina Davila notified ProPetro Holding Corp. (the “Company”) of her intention to resign from her position as Chief Accounting Officer and principal accounting officer of the Company, effective October 30, 2026" — 8-K filed 2026-09-21 (event 2026-09-16), Item 5.02

with the CFO stepping in: "the Company's existing Chief Financial Officer, Caleb Weatherl, will serve as interim principal accounting officer". The filing states the resignation was not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the Company's operations, policies, or practices, including any matters concerning the Company's accounting principles or practices, financial statement disclosure, or internal control over financial reporting — the full statutory denial, which is what a clean departure looks like.

The next day, 2026-09-22, a second 8-K landed, and it is the more interesting one. Reading them together is the value the promotion produced.

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2. The PROPWR contract arithmetic

The 2026-09-22 Item 7.01 announces that PROPWR has contracted approximately 230 MW to a subsidiary of Targa Resources — behind-the-meter power for Permian gas processing, "with full deployment expected in early 2028". Then, in the same paragraph:

"total capacity committed under contract for PROPWR now stands at approximately 510 MW" — 8-K filed 2026-09-22, Exhibit 99.1, first paragraph

followed by the qualifier that this also reflects previously announced oil and gas power capacity that is no longer committed under contract, and by "This recontracting allows PROPWR to redeploy the associated capacity to Targa" and to free megawatts for potential data centre deployments in 2027 and beyond.

The baseline, from the Q2 release eight weeks earlier:

"This brings total capacity committed under contract to approximately 350 megawatts." — 8-K filed 2026-07-29, Exhibit 99.1, Recent PROPWR Highlights

350 + 230 = 580. The company reports 510. On the company's own two disclosed numbers, roughly 70 MW — about a fifth of the pre-existing book — came off contract, and the figure is larger if any of the "over 100 megawatts" then in advanced oil-and-gas negotiations was signed in the interim. The release attaches no number to it. The headline is the gross addition.

Caveat, stated plainly: this is arithmetic on two press-release figures, each of which is "approximately". It is not a reconciliation, and the company has not published one. The scorecard's next action is to demand one at the Q3 release.

Two further facts make the gap matter:

• Deployment is in early 2028. The 230 MW produces no revenue for roughly five quarters after this one.
• The equipment is already bought. On the Q2 call the CFO said, defending the capital plan: "we've already ordered or have delivered 1.1 gigawatts of equipment". Against ~510 MW under contract that is roughly 590 MW with no customer, and at management's own guidance of $1.4-1.5m per megawatt inclusive of balance of plant, about $825-885m of capital.

And the reason to watch the megawatt number specifically, from the proxy:

"included Adjusted EBITDA, FCF, PROPWR committed megawatts, and a Sustainability and Safety metric" — DEF 14A filed 2026-04-08, CD&A, 2025 Annual Bonus Plan metrics

90% of each named executive's 2025 annual incentive was tied to quantitative metrics, up from 80% in 2024, and committed megawatts is one of the four.

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3. The largest customer sold its shares and is letting the contract run out

From Note 10 of the Q2 10-Q:

• ExxonMobil held 16,600,000 shares — 13.54% on the 2026 proxy's 5% holders table — inherited through Pioneer's 2024 merger. It sold the entire position in May 2026: "Following such sale, ExxonMobil no longer holds shares of the Company and is no longer a related party." A Schedule 13D/A was filed 2026-05-20 for an event date of 2026-05-18.
• The XTO sub-agreement covering two committed FORCE electric fleets (with an option for a third): > "We expect this agreement will expire in late 2026. At this time, we do not expect such agreement > to be renewed or extended" > — Q2 2026 10-Q, Note 10, ExxonMobil and Pioneer and the 10-Q adds that if ProPetro cannot procure additional XTO work it must redeploy the affected fleets, with an adverse effect until it does.
• Revenue from ExxonMobil (including Pioneer and XTO) was $39.3m in Q2 2026 and $111.2m over H1, against $71.2m and $144.2m a year earlier — −45% in the quarter.

Set against management's FY2025 risk summary, which lists "Reliance upon a few large customers may adversely affect our revenue and operating results." as the first risk under Customers, Suppliers and Competition, this is that risk running its course in public.

Share supply. ExxonMobil's 16.6m-share block came to market in May, eight weeks after the January offering of 15,000,000 shares at $10.00 (upsized from 12,500,000, Goldman Sachs lead book-runner, off a Form S-3, proceeds earmarked for growth capital for additional power generation equipment). That is roughly 31.6m shares of supply in five months against 122,823,917 shares issued at 2026-06-30. The stock closed $10.03 on 2026-09-22 — level with the January offering price eight months later.

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4. Kill test (S2) — the numbers, which are ugly and survivable

Segment detail from the Q2 2026 release; balance sheet from the Q2 10-Q.

Quarterly: revenue $306m in Q2 (from $271m in Q1), net loss $8.1m (from $3.6m), adjusted EBITDA $44.8m (from $36.4m).

Balance sheet at 2026-06-30: cash $784m, total liquidity $905m (including $121m of undrawn ABL, no ABL borrowings), long-term debt $764.9m plus $21.4m current maturities plus $10.9m interim debt, shareholders' equity $957.4m, total assets $2,059.8m. Debt was ~$122m at 2025-12-31 — the $690m convertible (0% coupon, May 2026, no dilution below $29.49 after the capped call) is the difference. Caterpillar Financial borrowings $130m, facility upsized to $167m.

FY2026 capital expenditure guidance $525-595m, of which $400-450m PROPWR and $125-145m completions. That is roughly five times annualised H1 EBITDA.

Verdict: ProPetro does not have a solvency problem in the next twelve months — it raised approximately $1.5bn over eighteen months and is spending it on a fleet it has largely ordered. It has a return problem: whether 1.1 GW of equipment finds contracts at the assumed economics before the completions business stops funding the gap. The share count is the pressure gauge: 104.3m issued at 2025-12-31, 122.8m at 2026-06-30 (+18% in six months), with the converts above.

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5. Filings read, and the red-flag sweep (S3)

Three biggest risks, in management's own ordering, FY2025 10-K Risk Factor Summary, p.iii, under "Risks Inherent in Our Business and Industry":

1. "Our business and financial performance depends on the historically cyclical oil and natural gas industry and particularly on the level of capital spending of E&P companies within the United States and in the Permian Basin..."
2. "Many of our power generation services involve long sales cycles."
3. "Our PROPWR SM business line exposes us to the significant risks and uncertainties associated with establishment of a new line of business, and such business line may not achieve the results we anticipate."

Two of the three are the new segment. Also on the list, and live this week: "We rely on a few key employees whose absence or loss could adversely affect our business."

Auditor: RSM US LLP, PCAOB ID 49, report dated 2026-02-19, ICFR opined effective at 2025-12-31. The sole critical audit matter is the power generation arrangements — the complexity of management's evaluation of the contracts, whether an embedded lease conveyed the right to control the use of an identified asset, and the estimation of standalone selling prices for non-lease components. The one judgement the auditor singled out is the accounting for the business the Chief Accounting Officer is leaving in the middle of.

Red-flag sweep (efts.sec.gov full text, CIK 0001680247, 2023-01-01 to 2026-09-23):

⚠️ The filing index does carry NT filings: an NT 10-K at 2024-03-01 (the FY2023 10-K was then filed 2024-03-13, so a Rule 12b-25 extension was used and met), plus NT 10-Q and NT 10-K filings in 2019-2020. There is no 10-K/A or 10-Q/A anywhere in the index. Recorded as history, not as a live finding — but a name with a late-filing record, a finance-team change and a CAM on its newest accounting deserves the note.

Also: the common stock was registered on NYSE Texas on 2026-08-20 (Form 8-A12B plus an exchange certification). Allstate did the same thing in 2026. Noise, recorded once.

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6. Ownership (S5), and the short position

3spread, 13F report date 2026-06-30 (threespread.py holders PUMP; 179 filers against 253 — the quarter is incompletely ingested and no exit may be read from an absence).

Almost every line is an add, and the adds are event-driven and multi-strategy money, not long-only value. That is what a register looks like when a 13.5% strategic block clears and the story changes from Permian frac to contracted power.

On the other side: short interest 16,221,951 shares at the 2026-08-31 settlement, up 1,069,516 from 2026-08-14, 5.4 days to cover. On 122.8m shares outstanding that is 13.2% — against ALL's 2.4% and AIG's 1.7% in the same slot. This is a genuinely contested security. (Equibles also returns a model estimate of ~15.9m shares for the 2026-09-15 settlement, explicitly flagged by the tool as near a coin flip on direction; it is a prediction, not a FINRA figure, and is not used above.)

Insiders: 13 directors and executive officers hold 1,894,695 shares, about 1.5% (DEF 14A 2026-04-08). The 5% table on that proxy shows ExxonMobil at 16,600,000 / 13.54% and Sourcerock at 6,846,650 / 5.58%; the first of those is now gone.

The Sixth Street row is not a holding. 2,086,479 shares reported as NEW, byte-identical to Charles Schwab Investment Management's — the defect documented in ledger/research/README.md, now at a seventh issuer after QCOM, ACGL, KNSL, AX, ALL and AIG. Seven for seven on every SEC name this repo has run the tool against since 2026-09-22.

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7. What management said, and what the tape did

From the Q2 call (2026-07-29), turns 9-20 of 80:

• On liquidity, the CFO: whole-year capex of $525-595m, with the expanded Caterpillar facility and completions free cash flow covering "a significant portion", against $905m of liquidity — so cash "exceeds the cash we need for the CapEx this year for what we've announced by hundreds of millions of dollars". Approximately $1.5bn raised over eighteen months. Cost per megawatt guidance of $1.4-1.5m unchanged, and "we've already ordered or have delivered 1.1 gigawatts of equipment".
• On the trajectory, the PROPWR lead: "350 megawatts today, headed towards 450 very soon, and several hundred megawatts at the data center", filling "almost all of, you know, middle of 28, maybe all of 28".
• On data centres, the CEO: the large long-term deals "have taken a few twists and turns that were unexpected", the counterparties are still engaged, and he still expects the overwhelming majority of future capacity to end up on data centre sites. One 60 MW hyperscaler deployment is live and operating.

So the September announcement lands against a July trajectory of 350 → 450 → "several hundred" data centre megawatts, and what arrived was 230 MW of midstream capacity plus a recontracting that took the net to 510. No data centre contract has been announced.

The tape. PUMP closed $12.22 on 2026-09-09 and $10.03 on 2026-09-22 — −18% in nine sessions, with the decline beginning before either September 8-K. On the Targa announcement day itself the stock fell from $10.16 to $10.03 on 4.4m shares. A 230 MW award from an investment-grade counterparty produced no positive reaction. This dossier records the sequence and does not claim a cause; the broader oilfield-services tape was not examined.

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8. Evidence that is thin, and access limits

• No cluster pass, so no S0, S4, S6 or S7. cluster-energy-materials-industrial is pending. There is no Stage 0 score, no value chain, no scuttlebutt and no thesis for this name in this repo. The kill criteria in the scorecard were written from this pass's evidence because a promoted name needs them, but they are not a substitute for the cluster's thesis.
• No scuttlebutt of any kind. No WebSearch was spent on PUMP; no analyst-coverage count, no price targets, no channel checks, no Glassdoor.
• One transcript, and only turns 9-20 of 80. The rest of the Q2 Q&A — including anything said about the ExxonMobil cliff or the oil-and-gas recontracting — was not reached. The Q1 2026 call was not read.
• EBITDA per megawatt in the S8 model is this pass's assumption [background], not a company disclosure. Management guides to cost per megawatt and refers to "earnings per megawatt" without a figure this run located. It is the most load-bearing number in the model and it is not sourced.
• The 70 MW figure is arithmetic on two "approximately" press-release numbers, not a reconciliation. The company has published none.
• The 13D/A filer was not confirmed. The 2026-05-20 Schedule 13D/A on PUMP is dated to the same window as ExxonMobil's disclosed sale and the primary document was not opened this run, so the edge in relationships.yaml cites the filing, not the filer's identity.
• Form 4 transaction codes not itemised; no insider buy/sell direction is asserted, including for the departing CAO.
• No investor presentation read, though Exhibit 99.2 of each results 8-K is one and it is free on EDGAR. The "earnings per megawatt" figure is most likely in it. That is the cheapest gap to close next time and it costs nothing.
• Next-earnings date is derived, not scheduled — late October 2026, from the 2025-10-29 and 2026-07-29 results 8-Ks.