Upside ranking
Every name with a scorecard, ranked by how far its base-case target sits above the last close. The target is the middle column of each name’s own valuation model, valued on a line roughly two years out; the bar shows where the price and that target sit between the same model’s bear and bull cases.
Prices: ROIC.ai get_latest_stock_price, close of 2026-09-22 (fetched 2026-09-23)
Ranked by base-case upside
Bar: bear → bull; price, base targetResearch model means the price target is the one the research routine wrote in the name’s scorecard or dossier. Derived means the file gave base-case earnings but no price, and the target applies a stated multiple to them — the multiple is an assumption, shown under “How the target was set”.
| # | Name | Price | Target | Upside | Bear → bull | Why it could rise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AVGO derived | $364.54 | $540 | +48% | $214$640 | Priced at ~12x management's FY28 EPS target: the market is discounting the AI revenue guides ($115bn FY27, $230bn FY28 AI). If the custom-accelerator schedule is delivered, the earnings arrive and the discount closes. Catalysts. Quarterly AI revenue against the $115bn FY27 guide; Singapore substrate capacity unlocking in FY27; customer-concentration disclosure (one distributor at 50% of Q3 FY26 revenue) not rising further. How the target was setManagement's own FY28 EPS of >$30 (the dossier's model lands on ~$30 independently) × 18x, an assumed multiple below today's ~20.6x on FY27. Bear: the dossier's '40%+ drawdown' from ~$357. Bull: EPS $32 × 20x. Horizon: FY2028 (Oct 2028). |
| 2 | NVDA derived | $228.87 | $295 | +29% | $125$429 | On management's own numbers it trades at ~14x FY28 EPS — the dossier calls it cheap, and says that is the tell: the market is pricing a real chance the FY28 guide misses because a rising share of demand is underwritten by NVIDIA itself. Catalysts. FY28 ~70% growth guide held or raised; supply commitments ($279bn) not falling; gross margin holding the 71-72% Q4 trough then 72-73%; receivables growth slowing. How the target was setThe dossier's base FY28 EPS ~$16.4 (management's ~70% growth guide met) × 18x, an assumed multiple below today's ~23x on FY27. Bear: the dossier's '40-50% drawdown'. Bull: EPS ~$19.5 × 22x. Horizon: FY2028 (Jan 2028). |
| 3 | ZS derived | $210.18 | $260 | +24% | $149$388 | Organic net new ARR accelerated 7% → 10% → 17% through FY26 while the FY27 guide embeds ~4%; if Security for AI and Agentic SOC land, 17% is a floor and the stock re-rates from ~7.7x EV/FY27 revenue. Catalysts. Investor Day 2026-10-06 (FY28-30 targets, non-seat ACV mix); Q1 FY27 results ~2026-11-24; net new ARR and NRR (kill below 112%). How the target was setThe dossier's illustrative FY29 scenario EVs (bear $25bn / base $45bn / bull $68bn) plus $1.77bn net cash, divided by ~180m diluted shares. The dossier itself calls these 'illustrative, not a model'. Horizon: FY2029 (Jul 2029) — beyond two years. |
| 4 | AIG research model | $75.18 | $93.00 | +24% | $60.00$130 | The only P&C name in the cluster at or below book (P/B 0.97). The base case is AIG keeps trading at book while earning 11-12% on it; the Corebridge exit is done and underwriting has started growing again. Catalysts. Q3 results ~2026-11-03; buyback pace ($2.6bn authority left) against the premium trend; Item 5.02 8-Ks after two senior departures in fifteen days. How the target was setScorecard model table: base ~$93 ('does not require a re-rating'). The scorecard's summary line says ~$92. Horizon: 2028 model line. |
| 5 | AX research model | $89.13 | $110 | +23% | $44.00$150 | 10x forward earnings for a bank compounding book value; the acquired Capital One IRA deposits are cheap funding if they arrived, and NIM above 4.6% carries the bull case. Catalysts. Fiscal Q1 2027 10-Q (~2026-10-29): the deposit table (did the ~$1.3bn of IRA balances transfer?) and the purchased-loan marks; efficiency ratio. How the target was setScorecard: base ~$110 at ~1.10x modelled FY2028 book. Horizon: FY2028 (Jun 2028). |
| 6 | APH research model | $82.84 | $98.00 | +18% | $42.00$147 | ~20x FY28 model EPS for the connector and cable supplier inside every AI rack; the bull case is AI content per rack compounding, 22% growth holding and a 21.5% margin. Catalysts. Quarterly IT Datacom growth; the FY2026 10-K re-test of whether acquisitions are 'immaterial in the aggregate' (the SEC asked); buyback nearly exhausted ($411m left). How the target was setScorecard: base ~$98 (~20x FY28E model EPS). Horizon: FY2028. |
| 7 | ACGL research model | $94.95 | $105 | +11% | $77.00$130 | 8.6x 2026E earnings with book compounding and shrinking the share count into a soft market; underwriting remains excellent on a current-accident-year basis. Catalysts. Q3 2026 10-Q (late Oct): Note 5 prior-year development by tail length — long-tail adverse development was $32m in Q2; buyback pace ($1.95bn in H1). How the target was setScorecard: base ~$105 (~1.14x modelled 2028 BVPS of ~$92). Horizon: 2028 model line. |
| 8 | ALL research model | $229.50 | $249 | +8% | $148$340 | 7.4x normalised 2028 EPS on peak-cycle personal-auto profitability; consensus Hold with targets ~$267-300. The bear column ($148) is larger than the upside — asymmetric the wrong way. Catalysts. September monthly catastrophe release ~2026-10-15 (July-August already $1.43bn vs $558m for all of Q3 2025); Q3 results late Oct/early Nov; buyback pace. How the target was setScorecard model table: base ~$249 ('about 8% of upside'). The summary line says ~$245. Horizon: 2028 (normalised). |
| 9 | NTAP research model | $192.91 | $209 | +8% | $126$290 | Durable pieces (first-party cloud storage +30%, Keystone +65%, 93%-margin support) compound under a cyclical flash-price print; 100% of FCF returned. The stock has already doubled in six months. Catalysts. INSIGHT 2026-09-29; Q2 FY27 call 2026-12-01 (product GM vs 54-55%, inventory, purchase commitments); NAND contract prices; June 2027 note refinancing. How the target was setDossier's illustrative scenario: base FY29 EPS $12.30 × 17x. Horizon: April 2029 (FY29) — beyond two years. |
| 10 | KNSL research model | $351.83 | $381 | +8% | $208$560 | Best-in-class E&S underwriter (57% loss ratio) at 16x earnings; the bull case needs the 32.7% Commercial Property decline to prove cyclical and ex-property growth to reaccelerate. Catalysts. Q3 release ~2026-10-22: gross written premium ex-Commercial-Property and the current accident year ex-cat loss ratio; the first buyback in the company's history. How the target was setScorecard: base ~$381 (15.1x 2028E operating EPS). Horizon: 2028. |
| 11 | OMAB research model | $102.45 | $105 | +2% | $72.00$141 | A concession with a tariff framework fixed to 2030 at ~14x earnings; the bull case is passenger traffic reverting to the 2023-25 6-8% growth as airline capacity returns. Catalysts. Monthly traffic prints (the dossier's buy trigger: two at +4% y/y or better); the 2030 tariff framework staying unamended; the 2026-09-18 unexplained volume spike. How the target was setDossier: base $7.51 EPS per ADS × 14x. Horizon: 2027. |
| 12 | ASML research model | $1,747.90 | $1,780 | +2% | $859$2,436 | The EUV monopoly with a shrinking share count; at ~29x FY28 the base case is roughly priced in, and upside needs the second capacity step (+30% low-NA EUV, +30% more for 2028). Catalysts. Quarterly orders and 2027 capacity commentary; whether the 'investigated' 2028 +30% is confirmed; TSMC capex discipline as the bubble indicator. How the target was setScorecard: base ~$1,780 (~28.9x FY28E model EPS; converted at EUR/USD 1.14673). Horizon: FY2028. |
| 13 | PUMP research model | $10.03 | $10.00 | −0% | $5.00$21.00 | A frac company becoming a power producer (PROPWR): no return in the base case, a triple if 1.1GW is earning in 2028 — a position-sizing question, not a valuation one. The bear case impairs the equity. Catalysts. Q3 release (late Oct): the PROPWR contract book reconciled line by line (additions vs capacity coming off contract); EBITDA per MW, which management has not published. How the target was setScorecard model table: base ~$10 at 5.5x 2028 group EBITDA. The summary line says ~$12 and bull ~$24. Horizon: 2028. |
| 14 | QCOM research model | $198.27 | $175 | −12% | $84.00$288 | The base case is below the price; the upside is the data-centre option — the $5bn FY27 / $15bn FY29 targets are not yet visible in a reported revenue line. Bull: merchant-accelerator share after the mid-2027 launch and a Meta CPU ramp. Catalysts. Q4 FY26 results 2026-11-04; the FY2026 10-K's accounting for the Amazon warrant; first reported data-centre revenue by early 2027. How the target was setScorecard: base ~$175 (~20x FY28E model EPS). Horizon: FY2028. |
| 15 | CBRS research model | $212.41 | $177 | −17% | $55.00$300 | ~62x EV/LTM revenue with no earnings; the base case models below the price and the bull case needs AWS to scale as the term sheet contemplates and customer concentration to broaden. Catalysts. The Q2 2026 prepared remarks (only a UBS restatement of 'revenue up more than 3x next year' is in hand); 36.1m customer-warrant shares vesting; first S-3 eligibility. How the target was setDossier: base below the traded price; bull $5.50 EPS × 55x on $8bn FY28 revenue. Horizon: FY2028. |
| 16 | AMD derived | $623.77 | $518 | −17% | $270$900 | The expensive one: ~41x FY27 EPS even if Data Center doubles in a year. The price is the option on the second-source thesis, and the OpenAI/Meta warrants (320m shares at $0.01) dilute holders if it works. Catalysts. Q3 results early Nov; Helios and MI500 ramp; warrant vesting in each 10-Q; the '>$20 EPS' target timeline. How the target was setThe dossier's base FY27 non-GAAP EPS ~$13.8 × 37.5x, the midpoint of its own bear (30x) and bull (45x) multiples. Bear and bull are the dossier's figures. Horizon: FY2027 (Dec 2027). |
| 17 | MRVL research model | $262.36 | $203 | −23% | $98.00$259 | The base case is below the price even on management's 60%/60% data-centre growth guides; the bull ($259) is roughly today's price. SBC and the NVIDIA preferred (21.8m shares at ~$92) dilute. Catalysts. Data-centre growth vs the 60% FY27/FY28 guides; Q3 FY27 non-GAAP EPS $1.05-1.15 guide; custom-silicon program wins. How the target was setDossier: base 30x FY28 model EPS $6.76, built from management's own guides. Horizon: FY2028 (Jan 2028). |
| 18 | ARM research model | $333.20 | $169 | −49% | $84.00$288 | ~100x+ FY28 earnings; 74% of FY26 revenue growth came from related parties (SoftBank and Arm China) while external revenue grew 7%. Upside needs the AGI CPU and compute-subsystem royalties to inflect. Catalysts. Royalty growth vs the guided 13%; related-party share of revenue; compute-subsystem adoption; SoftBank's 86.4% as an overhang. How the target was setDossier: base 60x FY28 model EPS $2.81. Only the bull case ($288) comes near today's price. Horizon: FY2028 (Mar 2028). |
Read this before acting on a row. Every target here is model-drafted and none is human-verified. Base cases assume management’s guidance is met on most names; the bear column is often larger than the upside. Buy price and position size remain the owner’s decision (stage S8). This is process support, not investment advice.